The color of New York State's violent crime

Re Franklin County: Isn’t there a large prison there? That could account for the high NAM share.

. . . and also the low crime rate, if all those NAMs are incarcerated.

I’m sure that you get the “correlation does not equal causality” folks from time to time.

Which is fine I guess, because when it comes to my or my family’s safety, I’m not interested in mathematical causation or root cause analysis or any of that crap. Simple correlation will do.

And a .83 at that. Do you happen to have a p-value for that r?

“I think either Inductivist or Half-Sigma has done the same type of analysis. You’re the second blogger I’ve seen to put this together. I KNOW I’ve seen it somewhere besides your parts 1-2 in the last few weeks.”

The only posts on this I’ve seen on this topic are my own. That said, if you find the post, send me the link.

Good stuff FB. Keep it up.
Between the leftist ideology and politicians, activists and constituents this trend is unlikely to be mitigated anytime soon.
EW, I long for the America where common sense had more currency than it does now. It seems like alot of sheeple nowdays, need a study to prove everything.

FB,
I got wind of your site by way of Roissy’s; I saw you posting over there and noticed Tood aka The Fifth Horseman mentioning you, so I decided to have a look-see. So far, so good!

OK, to the matter at hand; while I appreciate the effort, I fail to see the point-which is? If your point is that socalled “NAMs” commit more violent crime than Whites, Ok, tell me and the rest of the nation something we don’t know.

By the way, why is it you quant types, when doing such “studies” always fail to leave out the fact that, the singbiggest victims of Black crime, are invariably other Black people? Yea, I know, Black criminals prey on White folk too, but for every White rape, robbery, home invasion, carjacking or murder at the hands of a Black criminal, you can best believe there are easily three times as many Black victims at the same hands of Black criminals, too. So, why doesn’t that ever get mentioned?

I don’t like to speculate, but the feeling I get from such “concerned” folk as yourself is that your concern is really about Whites as potential victims, and whatever happens to Black folks, oh well. Even if it so happens that many of those Black victims as as innocent as the White ones-so what, right?

Now, I really want to be wrong here. But the utter lack of these facts in just about every “study” or “discussion” about “the color of crime” really makes me wonder.

Please explain?

Thanks.

The Obsidian

Whoa, first Chuck, then Dave in Hawaii, then Tood, and now you? Word’s getting around Roissytown.

“OK, to the matter at hand; while I appreciate the effort, I fail to see the point-which is? If your point is that socalled “NAMs” commit more violent crime than Whites, Ok, tell me and the rest of the nation something we don’t know.”

We know it, but the public at large either doesn’t know it or pretends to not know it in order to avoid being seen as racists. We live in an era where everybody needs a study in order to believe anything. Discussing these issues on a blog under the cover of a pseudonym is the only way I and others can speak freely.

“By the way, why is it you quant types, when doing such “studies” always fail to leave out the fact that, the singbiggest victims of Black crime, are invariably other Black people? Yea, I know, Black criminals prey on White folk too, but for every White rape, robbery, home invasion, carjacking or murder at the hands of a Black criminal, you can best believe there are easily three times as many Black victims at the same hands of Black criminals, too. So, why doesn’t that ever get mentioned?”

I can’t speak for other quantbloggers, but I think it’s a plain and obvious fact that the lion’s share of the crime is occurring against blacks in black neighborhoods. The numbers bear this out, even in my own neck of the woods – black criminals in Albany aren’t carpooling up to hoity-toity Saratoga Springs to pillage rich white households, they’re doing most of that in inner-city Albany. I thought this would be self-evident to anyone with a brain and without a racial chip on their shoulder.

“I don’t like to speculate, but the feeling I get from such “concerned” folk as yourself is that your concern is really about Whites as potential victims, and whatever happens to Black folks, oh well. Even if it so happens that many of those Black victims as as innocent as the White ones-so what, right?”

I’d be lying if I didn’t admit that a small part of me is concerned for my fellow whites. To a certain extent, we’re all preoccupied with our own people. I’m not a white nationalist or supremacist, though. As commenter freak show pointed out, blacks commit crimes way out of whack to their numbers, and because society and the government won’t acknowledge this, they keep pushing solutions and policies that don’t work. Take for example, racial hucksters strong-arming Westchester County into building housing for low-income minorities:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08112009/news/regionalnews/wchester_vows_to_be_less_white_184017.htm

Relocating poor blacks and Latinos into high-income white neighborhoods isn’t going to suddenly assimilate them into middle-class America – it’ll just spread the existing problems of poverty and crime out to areas that didn’t have them before. This and other liberal ideas for solving these problems have done nothing but harm the black community and America at large. For example, my very first quantblogging post (linked at the top of this one) disproved the notion that gun control laws lower crime rates or affect them period. Disassembling the welfare state would do more to help blacks then any of these quack solutions that guilty SWPLs keep pushing.

FB,

FB: Whoa, first Chuck, then Dave in Hawaii, then Tood, and now you? Word’s getting around Roissytown.

Obsidian: Yea, I know. Good news travels fast.

“OK, to the matter at hand; while I appreciate the effort, I fail to see the point-which is? If your point is that socalled “NAMs” commit more violent crime than Whites, Ok, tell me and the rest of the nation something we don’t know.”

FB: We know it, but the public at large either doesn’t know it or pretends to not know it in order to avoid being seen as racists. We live in an era where everybody needs a study in order to believe anything. Discussing these issues on a blog under the cover of a pseudonym is the only way I and others can speak freely.

O: Maybe I’m living under a rock, but I really don’t see this “blackout”, pardon the pun, on Black crime. Every night when I turn on my tv to the news I see at least two of three reports of crime locally, and invariably, the perps are Black. This notion of not wanting to reveal the race of the perp thing, I’ve just never seen it.

And in any event, as I’ve pointed out to Freak Show, what’s the point of going on and on about this? Even if it were possible to snap one’s fingers and suddenly get the MSM to plaster every broadcast w/a Black perp as the lead, would it change crime rates? I doubt it. And as per usual, the biggest losers would be Black folk, who would continue to be the biggest victims of Black crime. Hands down.

“By the way, why is it you quant types, when doing such “studies” always fail to leave out the fact that, the singbiggest victims of Black crime, are invariably other Black people? Yea, I know, Black criminals prey on White folk too, but for every White rape, robbery, home invasion, carjacking or murder at the hands of a Black criminal, you can best believe there are easily three times as many Black victims at the same hands of Black criminals, too. So, why doesn’t that ever get mentioned?”

FB: I can’t speak for other quantbloggers, but I think it’s a plain and obvious fact that the lion’s share of the crime is occurring against blacks in black neighborhoods. The numbers bear this out, even in my own neck of the woods – black criminals in Albany aren’t carpooling up to hoity-toity Saratoga Springs to pillage rich white households, they’re doing most of that in inner-city Albany. I thought this would be self-evident to anyone with a brain and without a racial chip on their shoulder.

O: Yea, one would think that, but the motivations on the part of quite a few in the HBDsphere aren’t always made clear, or, if they are, they aren’t very friendly toward Black folk. Which is a concern of mine of course.

“I don’t like to speculate, but the feeling I get from such “concerned” folk as yourself is that your concern is really about Whites as potential victims, and whatever happens to Black folks, oh well. Even if it so happens that many of those Black victims as as innocent as the White ones-so what, right?”

FB: I’d be lying if I didn’t admit that a small part of me is concerned for my fellow whites. To a certain extent, we’re all preoccupied with our own people. I’m not a white nationalist or supremacist, though. As commenter freak show pointed out, blacks commit crimes way out of whack to their numbers, and because society and the government won’t acknowledge this, they keep pushing solutions and policies that don’t work. Take for example, racial hucksters strong-arming Westchester County into building housing for low-income minorities:

O: Won’t admit or address this? FB, maybe you might wanna do a quant study on the growth of prisons over the past quarter century, or arrest and incarceration rates, etc. Little hint, THEY’VE ALL GONE UP. Dramatically. And yet, the crime hasn’t stopped in certain areas-Black ones. That tells me that it aint working, that we gotta do something different. Now, that may not mean moving Black folk into richer and Whiter areas, or restricting guns, but something’s gotta be done. What that might be, I’m open to debate on.

FB: Relocating poor blacks and Latinos into high-income white neighborhoods isn’t going to suddenly assimilate them into middle-class America – it’ll just spread the existing problems of poverty and crime out to areas that didn’t have them before. This and other liberal ideas for solving these problems have done nothing but harm the black community and America at large. For example, my very first quantblogging post (linked at the top of this one) disproved the notion that gun control laws lower crime rates or affect them period. Disassembling the welfare state would do more to help blacks then any of these quack solutions that guilty SWPLs keep pushing.

O: Welfare reform has been considered by all sides as a hige success. There are fewer folk on welfare today than there were a decade ago I believe, w/talk in some quarters of shrinking it even more. And yet the crime rate, again mainly in Black areas, remains relatively high.

Let’s be clear here-these same neighborhoods, less than a half century ago, didn’t have these problems. And it all can’t be blamed on welfare, because again, steps have been taken and are being taken to address all of that.

So, what’s the solution, FB? That’s what we need here, if I may paraphrase Aaliyah. We need a resolution.

O

FB,
In reply to your post above, I thought to cut & paste something I wrote earlier today over at Roissy’s. It’s a reply to Doug on the hit HBO drama The Wire, though what I have to say directly engages many of the points you made above. Check it out and holla back.

“Doug,
There are a few other things you said that you wanted my reaction to; I’l try to respond now.

Your reaction to what I paraphrased from Simon, about how we basically have a surplus of people in the post-industrial era, and how we’re willing to let them “off” themselves, is interesting. I say that because if one applies a strictly racial lens, as you’ve done, to this thing, then its an easy sell, as you’ve said yourself-the people of West B-More are “not like you”. So you really don’t have too much of a problem w/them “offing” themselves.

Of course, the problem w/that kind of thinking, is akin to looking at the world through a keyhole, instead of a door, and here’s where the sheer genius of The Wire again comes shining through.

I say that because, as I’ve noted earlier, one of thee most poignant seasons of the series, and my personal fave, was Season Two, which focused on B-More’s White Working Class. In this case, Polish folks, who lived and died, on the docks. The fictional Stevodores’ Union formed the backdrop of The Wire’s examination of the Death of Work in post-industrial America at the dawn of the 21st century.

Keep in mind now, we’re talking a season focused almost exclusively, on White folks. And a season I’m fairly certain you haven’t seen much of, if at all.

OK, so what does this have to do w/obstensibly dumb Black folks killing each other in he ghetto? Quite a bit as it turns out. Without hamfisted preachiness, The Wire shows the clear parallels btw what happened to West B-More a little over three decades ago, and what is happening to B-More’s Highland section of town, where many of its Poles live. Indeed, as the Union is in its death throes, the young “Wiggers” of Highland town turn to slinging on the corners-sound familiar, Doug? By now I shouldn’t have to spell it all out for ya. You’re a Stanford Man afterall.

But suffice it to say, w/the aforementioned themes, and the subplot of White Slavery in the mix, Season Two of The Wire manages to tie two different worlds coexisting in one city-West Baltimore and its Highland section-by showing that in so many ways, it shared the same fate. As has been said many times here in this forum, Black America is the canary in the coalmine-what happens to us is only a preview of what’s to come for our White brothers and sisters. The Wire showed this very well in Season Two.

Which brings me to another major point that, because you haven’t seen enough of it, to notice. And that is, that The Wire is an examination of institutions, and how, in an age of unbounded, raw, capitalism, ultimately betrays ALL of us. No matter if its the drugs trade, the police dept, the city/state gov’t, the schools or the docks/unions, The Wire shows again and again, how each institution fails its most loyal members, and in many ways betrays them.

This is why, when you and others trot out the IQ argument, I take it w/a grain of salt, because I know the view is a bit wider than what you’re so intently focused on. Yea, Black folks may not be as smart as Whites, but the vast majority of those White guys, including Fank Sobotka himself, featured in The Wire’s second season, were gonna be accused of being Nobel winners either. Like Black folks in the not too distant past, these were honest, hardworking folk, the proverbial Salt of the Earth, Doug, who, perhaps because of teir skin color, perhaps because of them just abit smarter than dem Darkies, perhaps out of sheer luck of the draw, were able to dodge the bullet that hit Black folks, hard, in the 60s, 70s and early 80s, as manufacturing and semi-skilled/skilled labor left the cities enmasse.

In short Doug, since we’re sitting upon the ground and talking as Men here, Frank Sobotka and his largely White Stevodores’ Union was Niggerized-debased, dehumanized, just plain ole dissed, and seen only as good as their lessening market value will allow them to hang on to their jobs by the powers that be. It’s interesting to note, in Season Three, after Season Two, seeing Clay Davis, a prominent and utterly corrupt Black MD State Senator, alongside other White luminaries, shovels in hand, breaking ground on the new proposed condos to be built on the carcass of the dockworkers’ home turf.

It seems it ain’t only Black folks of more humble and modest means who were and are being abandoned, hmm Doug?

Both the legit powers that be, like those mentioned above, and the underground forces, like The Greek, as I said, Niggerized not only Sobotka but his beloved Union. Unbounded capitalism, unencumbered by any other considerations, can do that. By Season Two’s end, we see Highlandtown start its slow and steady decline, from a strong Blue Collar section of the city, on an inexorable slide to West B-More’s bombed-out ways.

Maybe IQ can explain that, too?

SMH

The Obsidian”

o, one more thing i wanted to mention earlier- mark kleiman has pretty much stated (i think in the vid with glenn loury) that there is no evidence of racial bias in arrests of black people. maybe with sentencing, too, but i can’t remember completely. this assertion is backed up by arrest/conviction among the various races corresponding to the fbi national victim database, which collects data from victims for who the race of the perpetrator was.

Obsidian:

I have not seen “The Wire,” to my shame. I’ll have to look it up.

“OK, so what does this have to do w/obstensibly dumb Black folks killing each other in he ghetto? Quite a bit as it turns out. Without hamfisted preachiness, The Wire shows the clear parallels btw what happened to West B-More a little over three decades ago, and what is happening to B-More’s Highland section of town, where many of its Poles live. Indeed, as the Union is in its death throes, the young “Wiggers” of Highland town turn to slinging on the corners-sound familiar, Doug? By now I shouldn’t have to spell it all out for ya. You’re a Stanford Man afterall.”

Fuckin’ a, dude. The exact same things that ruined the black working-class have wiped out the whites as well. I grew up in the Polish neighborhood of Syracuse, NY, and your description of what happened in “The Wire” to the Polish district of Baltimore could easily apply to what happened in my hometown. Like every other major city in the Rust Belt, Syracuse’s economy was built on manufacturing and blue-collar jobs. When they started disappearing in the late 80′s, the city fell apart. Everybody with the means to leave has done so or is doing so, including myself, which is only sending the city further into the tubes. It’s truly a depressing sight: dilapidated houses, whole blocks of businesses abandoned, idiot boys both black and white listening to lowest common denominator rap and wearing their pants around their knees, and an entire section of Syracuse returning to the wilderness. Rochester, Buffalo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Akron, Indianapolis – it’s the same story everywhere, and it’s both whites and blacks in those cities suffering. One could do a “Fabulous Ruins of the Rust Belt” website and it would look exactly the same.

“But suffice it to say, w/the aforementioned themes, and the subplot of White Slavery in the mix, Season Two of The Wire manages to tie two different worlds coexisting in one city-West Baltimore and its Highland section-by showing that in so many ways, it shared the same fate. As has been said many times here in this forum, Black America is the canary in the coalmine-what happens to us is only a preview of what’s to come for our White brothers and sisters. The Wire showed this very well in Season Two.”

“Preview?” It’s already here, just not in the big cities. I took a trip up to NY’s North Country recently, and I heard a joke from one of the locals: “In the North Country, if you aren’t a farmer, you either work for the government or get a monthly check from the government.” Ha ha, funny right? Did you check that Kunstler link in my previous comment? The whole of New York, outside of the NYC metro area, Long Island, and the Capital District, looks like what he described. The military isn’t even a reliable source of economic prosperity anymore – the waves of base closures under both the Clinton and Bush administrations wiped out a lot of communities. The free trade swindle, the college loan racket, the immigration shell game – they’re all linked in that they’re all being used by the political elite to disempower the working class. Not to sound like a Marxist, but these are just the facts.

“This is why, when you and others trot out the IQ argument, I take it w/a grain of salt, because I know the view is a bit wider than what you’re so intently focused on. Yea, Black folks may not be as smart as Whites, but the vast majority of those White guys, including Fank Sobotka himself, featured in The Wire’s second season, were gonna be accused of being Nobel winners either. Like Black folks in the not too distant past, these were honest, hardworking folk, the proverbial Salt of the Earth, Doug, who, perhaps because of teir skin color, perhaps because of them just abit smarter than dem Darkies, perhaps out of sheer luck of the draw, were able to dodge the bullet that hit Black folks, hard, in the 60s, 70s and early 80s, as manufacturing and semi-skilled/skilled labor left the cities enmasse.”

I haven’t mentioned IQ in that post or any post so far because while I believe it’s important, it’s not as important as the Steveosphere makes it out to be. “If you so smart, why ain’t you rich?” Most of them worship IQ because it’s part of the ultimate nerd fantasy – a world in which the brainy, socially retarded geeks rule. Which, of course, will never happen.

“In short Doug, since we’re sitting upon the ground and talking as Men here, Frank Sobotka and his largely White Stevodores’ Union was Niggerized-debased, dehumanized, just plain ole dissed, and seen only as good as their lessening market value will allow them to hang on to their jobs by the powers that be. It’s interesting to note, in Season Three, after Season Two, seeing Clay Davis, a prominent and utterly corrupt Black MD State Senator, alongside other White luminaries, shovels in hand, breaking ground on the new proposed condos to be built on the carcass of the dockworkers’ home turf.”

Again, Obsidian, absolutely correct. The political class, white and black, Democrat and Republican, is united in its efforts to fuck over poor whites and blacks as much as they can. Welfare is part of the “bread and circuses” to keep the underclasses quiet, as is the expansion of government jobs. The money for both is running out. All but three state governments are facing budget crises this year, and a few, including California and New York, are on the verge of fiscal insolvency. The federal government can’t keep up its out of control spending for much longer. The center is not going to hold.

And when it falls, there will be hell, heaven, and purgatory to pay.

FB,
Thanks for the comments on my The Wire commentary. You really do owe it to yourself to grip the entire series, take a few weekends out, and watch it. Its powerful drama viewing and experience you’ll not soon forget.

Thanks again.

O

Yup, race seems to be the ginormous elephant in the middle of the room when it comes to interpersonal violent street crime.

The Africanization of America is basically turning this country into Africa:

Overbreeding fatherless babies
High rape and perpetual violence
Decivilization
Epic economic FAIL

As these memes and genes spread out from the ghetto into mainstream America, this country is quickly turning into a giant ghetto. It’s just like Africanized killer bees taking over domestic honeybees.

“As these memes and genes spread out from the ghetto into mainstream America, this country is quickly turning into a giant ghetto. It’s just like Africanized killer bees taking over domestic honeybees.”

Do you realize that before the 40s American ghetto’s where 100% white? The issue is not the race, the issue is societal break down.

And you know what Byrdeye? Fuck you. I am so freaken tired of racist assholes like you that blame everything on blacks! Or no it’s the Jews corrupting us! Or OMG, those whites fucked everything up! It’s all fucking bullshit.

We have a mess on our hands, bitching about which group cause it will not help us. These are not racial issues. These are not IQ issues. The gears that ran our society have been warped and broken and we either work together to fix that or we all fail together.