No correlation between gun control laws and violent crime rates

by Ferdinand Bardamu on July 21, 2009

in Politics

The ostensible purpose of gun control laws is to prevent violent crimes such as murder and manslaughter. Therefore, looking at violent crime data, we’d expect to see a correlation between the strength of a state’s gun control laws and that state’s amount of violent crime. To test this, I used violent crime data for each state from the FBI for the year 2007 divided by Census Bureau figures on each state’s population to get that state’s violent crime per capita, while using gun law scores from the Brady Campaign’s annual report. I had to leave off the District of Columbia, known for draconian gun laws and sky-high crime rates, due to the lack of a corresponding Brady score. But enough talk, here’s the data:

Violent Crime Per CapitaBrady Campaign Rankings
South Carolina0.007889
Tennessee0.007537
Nevada0.0075111
Louisiana0.007292
Florida0.007236
Delaware0.0068922
New Mexico0.006646
Alaska0.006614
Maryland0.0064253
Michigan0.0053622
Illinois0.0053328
Arkansas0.005296
California0.0052379
Texas0.005119
Missouri0.005054
Oklahoma0.0052
Georgia0.004937
Arizona0.004836
North Carolina0.0046620
Kansas0.004537
Alabama0.0044815
Massachusetts0.0043254
Pennsylvania0.0041626
New York0.0041451
Colorado0.0034816
Ohio0.0034313
Indiana0.003348
Washington0.0033318
New Jersey0.0032963
Nebraska0.0030210
Iowa0.0029516
Kentucky0.002952
Mississippi0.002915
Wisconsin0.0029112
Minnesota0.0028911
Montana0.002888
Oregon0.0028818
West Virginia0.002754
Hawaii0.0027343
Virginia0.002718
Connecticut0.0025654
Idaho0.002396
Wyoming0.002399
Utah0.002354
Rhode Island0.0022747
South Dakota0.001696
North Dakota0.001424
New Hampshire0.0013711
Vermont0.001249
Maine0.0011812
Correlation-0.01335

Yep, there’s basically no correlation between gun control laws and violent crime. The top five most violent states per capita, as well as seven of of the top ten most violent states, have lax gun laws. However, the five least violent states have weak laws as well, with eight of the bottom ten states placing poorly on the Brady Campaign’s scorecard.

Strict gun control states are similarly scattered all over the place. California, number one on the Brady scorecard, is number 13 for violent crime, and other states with strong gun laws such as Delaware, Maryland, Michigan, and Illinois are at numbers 6, 9, 10, and 11 for violent crime, respectively. At the same time,  several other states with strong gun laws such as Hawaii, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are quite low on violent crime, clocking in at numbers 39, 41, and 45, respectively.

We can safely see from this data that the power of state coercion isn’t going to stop people who want to shoot each other from doing so. The next time you get into an argument with a gun-fearing SWPL, you’ll have the facts on your side.

Some other observations:

New York, which is number 6 on the scorecard, is the 24th most violent state, while trigger-happy Vermont, tied at 27, is the 49th most violent. Seceding was probably the smartest thing those mountain-dwelling lefties ever did.

I noted that the least violent states on the table are known for being, to put it subtly, white-bread. This observation probably won’t shock any denizens of the Steveosphere, but it’s still verboten to mention these things in public society. In order to prove my assertion, though, I’ll need another fancy table and another cool graph, so interested readers will have to wait.

{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }

1 ASDF July 22, 2009 at 1:01 pm

Good research, and something I have long suspected. I look forward to hearing about the racial angle. I would also like to suggest that you look at rates of crimes like mugging and burglary compared to levels of gun ownership or strictness of gun laws in States. I suspect that states where the average citizen is likely to have guns in the home or be carrying a concealed weapon legally have lower incidences of breaking and entering and robbery.

2 Chunk October 15, 2009 at 9:13 am

Heh, this actually makes me want to ban guns more. I was always anti gun-control because I thought it deterred crime. I see now that guns have no real purpose in our day to day lives, and are just an accident waiting to happen.

Not to mention those creepy ass gun nuts who cherish their AK47s and give them names.

3 Bhetti October 15, 2009 at 9:22 am

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=whitebread
Though whitebread individuals are usually white, the term is not necessarily racial in meaning – the implication lies more with the blandness, predictability, and banality of plain white bread. Accordingly, “wonderbread” is often used as a synonym.

Oh I see.

4 Ferdinand Bardamu October 15, 2009 at 4:27 pm

Bhetti:

“Though whitebread individuals are usually white, the term is not necessarily racial in meaning – the implication lies more with the blandness, predictability, and banality of plain white bread…Oh I see.”

A post debunking the primary reason for gun control, and THAT’S what you comment on? *shakes head*

5 Anonymous October 25, 2009 at 3:28 pm

why don’t people who are anti-gun stop wasting their time trying to take the guns from people who use them for recreation (i.e. trap shooting) and hunting and spend their money… oh, i don’t know, maybe setting up afterschool programs for people in the inner-cities who are likely to SHOOT people! Don’t take my guns! Help the people who are making those bad choices, so they can get an education and a job and not join a gang and shoot little kids in drive-bys.

Don’t believe me? Where is there major crime? Big cities. Inner cities. Poor kids who think they have no way out, so join gangs to get by. We could change that.

6 gunslingergregi October 25, 2009 at 3:55 pm

Guns help the law abiding citizen more than the criminal.

If the criminals can’t shoot you to death when 4 of them come in your house. They will have to stab you to death. With you having no gun for defense.

Look at africa hundreds of thousands dieing getting chopped up with machettes.

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